2009-10 Season Preview: Western Conference Part One

Working my way from the "outhouse to the penthouse" here are my predictions for Western Conference this year, starting with the West's members of the Taylor Hall sweepstakes.

15. Colorado Avalanche
Might as well get this out of the way now. Joe Sakic's number retirement ceremony is going to be the highlight of the season. It's all downhill from there. Colorado was statistically the worst offensive in the NHL last season. The Avs were also abysmal on special teams with the power-play and penalty kill ranked 25th and 21st respectively. And of course the team no longer employs Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth or Ian Laparriere. On the slight plus side, the defence isn't terrible, Paul Stastny is fully healthy, Matt Duchene will give some glimpses of brilliance and Craig Anderson is an absolute bargain at $1.5m. But make no mistake; this is a young and inexperienced team. Colorado will struggle to score goals and will almost certainly finish last. Two wins to start the season not withstanding.

14. Phoenix Coyotes
The only team that might prevent the "Av-Nots" from finishing last are the Desert Dogs. I'm not even going to try writing about their off-ice struggles. But in case you were distracted by all the court room drama, let's not forget that the Coyotes are coming off a 13th place finish in the Western Conference and are drifting from day to day. Wayne Gretzky is out as Head Coach, replaced by former Dallas bench boss Dave Tippett. The move gets The Great One out of the spotlight in Phoenix but seems like it's a step sideways. Tippett was good but not great during his run in Big D and shouldn't make a difference (positively or negatively) to this team's fortunes. The big issue is that personnel-wise, this team is a disaster. The team gutted itself at the trade deadline last year. Goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov recorded a dismal 2.98 GAA last year. The defence is collection of has-beens (Ed Jovanoski), won't-be's (Sam Lepsito) and never-weres (Jim Vandermeer). Their one saving grace is captain Shane Doan. It could be on his sheer will that the 'Yotes don't finish last. But that's about all this warrior will be able to do.

13. Edmonton Oilers
There's a lot of excitement in Oil Country and I have no idea why. The hire of Pat Quinn might have been good if this team was laden with veterans, but it's instead one of the youngest teams in the league. Quinn immediately tried to put his stamp on this team by trading three youngsters for Dany Heatley. While Edmonton is fortunate that it didn't happen (mostly because it would have made Bryan Murray look good and I really don't like when that happens), I can say from first hand experience watching what he did in Toronto that it will happen again. Pat Quinn and his GM Steve Tambellini (read: the man that Quinn wanted to replace him as GM of the Leafs) are going to gut this team of their prospects and young talent - or at least try to. Oilers fans should also note how well Khabibulin played in his first "Battle of Alberta." Have fun with that 36 year-old Russian who's in year one of a four year guaranteed contract.

12. Los Angeles Kings
I actually like the Kings, in 2010-11. The forward unit is young and getting better. Adding Ryan Smyth should provide veteran leadership to this talented group. The defence is being built around a solid foundation of Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson, both of whom have the potential to play 30 minutes a night. But the youth up front plus the inexperience of goaltender Jon Quick mean I'm not quite ready to say this team makes the jump.

11. Minnesota Wild
Gone are the days of the Northwest division being the league's most competitive. Jacques Lemaire's departure from Minnesota should have allowed the Wild (don't call us the North Stars) to unleash the oft-injured Marian Gaborik's talent on the rest of the league. I've always felt that Gaborik was ill-suited to playing Lemaire's physical, puck-possession style of hockey and that his injuries were a result of him doing things that shouldn't have (read: hitting). Whether or not I was right, we'll never know since Gaborik took a big contract from the New York Rangers (more about that in the Eastern Conference preview). Minnesota replaced him with Martin Havlat - another talented but oft-injured forward. But in Havlat case, he was getting injured on team that had a rather offensive agenda to begin with (Ottawa post-Jacques Martin, Chicago). If Havlat stays healthy, they should have a good but not great first line with Saku's little brother and Pierre-Marc Bouchard but the Wild will struggle to score beyond this line. Finally, the defence and goaltending are largely unchanged from last season's team that missed the playoffs. The changes that were made on defence (Shane Hnidy and Greg Zanon) I'm not a big fan of. With Lemaire's system, the Wild still finished ninth in '09. Without it, count of something worse.

10. Dallas Stars
I really like Brad Richards. But it doesn't help when you're paying you're second line centre almost $3 million more than first line centre Mike Ribierio. With all that money invested in two players, there might be some problems and it's in the D. The Stars' defence is pegged together with sub-par talent. This might be less of a problem with a good goaltender, but Marty Turco hasn't proven he can do it without strong defence. With all of the criticisms, 11th might seem a little high for Dallas but I love the leadership brought by Brendan Morrow and Mike Modano. This team won't be terrible, it just won't be very good.

9. Vancouver Canucks
This might be a bit rash after the Canucks' 0-3 start, but I remain convinced that the Canucks will only go as far as Roberto Luongo takes them. Right now, Andrew Raycroft would be better. Oh that's right, he played last night after The Captain was pulled for surrendering four goals on just 12 shots. The defence hasn't impressed so far with the team allowing 13 goals in the the first games, with Willie Mitchell as the lone bright spot in an otherwise string of offensive minded rearguards. And of course the penalty kill has been atrocious, currently sitting at 58.3%. The weird thing is that forwards are good. They're averaging 40 shots a night. The powerplay is scoring at a reasonable rate of 20%. Alex Burrows has emerged into a decent winger with the Sedins. Ryan Kesler could become the second line centre that Mats Sundin was supposed to be last year. And the Sedins are good for their usual 82 points in 82 games. But this team needs Luongo and the defence to step up. Roberto might be capable of it but without real defence, the Canucks will be taking a huge step back this year.