Captain Blye and The Rabbi: Epsidoe 26

Good morning listeners/readers!
And what a glorious morning it is. It's Friday! The long weekend it almost upon us! It's Sailpast at the RCYC tomorrow! The Active Stick is coming to town this weekend! THE HABS WON LAST NIGHT!!!!! And as promised, a new episode of Captain Blye and Rabbi.

In this week's edition, Ethan and I pick up where we left off discussing the four teams remaining in the post-season and how they wrapped up their spots in the Conference finals. The Sharks (sorta) shed the Choking Dogs mantra. The Hawks beat down the Canucks, exposing Roberto Luongo as a very overrated netminder. The Habs of course continued their miracle run by surviving two more elimination games, culminating with another game seven win on the road (no big deal) to send whining Sidney Crosby and the (now former) Stanley Cup Champion Penguins to the golf course. And the Flyers might have made history. We also discuss the first two games of the Conference finals and previewed last night's game at the Bell Centre (read: Habs win).

Finally we lay into the Crosby-Ovechkin argument one more time. We take this piece by the National Post's Bruce Arthur and look critically on these two superstars. Yes Crosby has had the better career after five seasons but careers take much more than five seasons to unfold. Sid might be number one right now, but the debate isn't over.

Enjoy and have a great long weekend!
Go Habs Go!!!!

What's this? A double-dose of Capt Blye and the Rabbi?

Greetings listeners,
I apologize for the screwy schedule/laziness of one-half of the duo in recent weeks. For your listening enjoyment, here are episodes 24 and 25 of the finest hockey show in the interwebs. Both shows discuss the playoffs, with the first round the main topic in #24 and the second round our point of focus for #25. Episode 25 also includes  a special topic on "Terrible" Ted Lindsay and how appropriate it was for the NHLPA to rename its player of the year award after this hockey crusader.

Tonight the show resumes and I promise, it will be better than ever.

Check it out!

Half-assed Second round playoff predictions

Eastern Conference

Penguins vs. Canadiens
Congrats GB. While you don't get your dream Crosby-Ovi Eastern Conference final, you're almost assured of Sid the Kid in the Stanley Cup final for a third year running. If Crosby & co.'s play in the first round is any indicator, Pittsburgh has shown that they're ridiculously talented up front, good (but not great) in their own end and able to slack a team three goals and still win. Very impressive. But the first round also showed us that Habs have great goaltending/team defence and an intestinal fortitude that they haven't shown all season. Hal Gill and Josh Gorges would be covered in bruises from all the shot that they blocked (if they were human). It also showed that Marc-Andre Fleury more often then not needs his teammates to bail him out from his far too frequent poor outings. The Pens should take this series, but it won't be a cakewalk.

Penguins in seven


Bruins vs. Flyers
Don Cherry must be proud. The big, bad Bruins are back. The B's were able to pound the Sabres into submission for the better part of six games and have been rewarded with home ice in the second round. But their opponents from Philadelphia know a thing or two about physical play. With the physicality aspect largely neutralized, this series will come down to two factors: goaltending and the health of Marc Savard. I'm still not sold on Brian Boucher as a real starter in the NHL. The Devils weren't the test that I thought they'd be, whereas Boston should give us a better since of Boucher. In contrast, I'm all in on Boucher counterpart in Boston, Tukka Rask. Rask has been solid when asked to start for the Bruins this season and was strong against Buffalo in the first round. With regards to Marc Savard, he's returning from a concussion not a broken bone. If he isn't 100%, the Bruins medical staff should be stripped of their right to practice medicine. Since I believe that they're not complete fools, it's logical to suggest that Savard will be (if nothing else) a huge inspiration push for Boston. And of should step back in as a first line centre.

Bruins in six


Western Conference

Sharks vs. Red Wings
I'm cheating a bit here since San Jose already has a 1-0 lead in this series, but I've been saying San Jose will make the conference finals since the beginning of the post-season. And last night's game helps to prove this belief. Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley finally got their names on the game sheet with a sweet passing play to put the Sharks up 2-0. If they can keep it up and the second line of Pavelski, Setoguchi and Clowe continues its very strong play, San Jose has a chance to shed their reputation of choking dogs in the post-season. But it won't be easy. As evidenced by last night's game, no lead (even a 3-0 lead) is safe against Detroit. The Red Wing are the most battle-tested, veteran laden team in this entire playoff. The core of this squad has won two cups and been to the finals three times. They won't lay down for anyone, especially not a team that has a history of failing in the clutch. But, but, but. If San Jose's top two lines play like they're capable of, I think that Sharks can end that awful run of post-season brain-farts.

Sharks in seven


Black Hawks vs. Canucks
I called the Canucks to fall in previous round. That they won has done nothing to deter me from my belief that they're the most overrated team left. They need Roberto Luongo to play at his best. If he doesn't, there's nothing that their skaters can do. The Canucks are not strong enough defensively to win without a strong performance from Luongo. As for the Hawks, they're the best team left. On offence and defence, they have the best personnel on paper. I know (as do the Washington Capitals) that Stanley Cups aren't won on paper. But the second half of their series against Nashville, the talent clicked to produce some gutty, intense performances. Heck, they were able to tie up game five on a 5-on-5, net's empty situation, finish the PK in the opening minutes of overtime and win it later in the extra period (the irony isn't lost that it was Marian Hossa, the player that was in the box for the end of regulation/beginning of OT). The Hawks are a better team than they were last year when they beat Vancouver without home-ice advantage. It's happening again this year.

Black Hawks in five

Capt Blye and the Rabbi: Episode 23, plus a bonus

Welcome back hockey fans. It's playoff time! For this week's show, Ethan I decided that you would get more bang for your buck if we gave it an extra two days. Lo and behold, the Flyers have bumped the Devils and the Sens saved off elimination in triple OT. In the first period, we review these series as well as the other two and compare our picks to what has happened (I suppose my Penguins to sweep the Senators wasn't quite accurate). In the second, we discuss the post-season happenings in the Western Conference. Finally, we close we a discussion of the NHL Awards. So far, the league has announced the nominees for the Selke (Top Defensive Foward), Calder (Rookie of the Year), Lady Byng (Gentlemanly conduct) and Norris trophies (Top Defenceman.)

Thankfully, Ethan and I only talked for a couple minutes on the Habs-Caps series. If we had gone for much longer, it might have sounded like this beaut.

I have just one request for tonight's games...

And it's not, "Please Marc-Andre Fleury, can you turn down the suck and turn up the awesome?" or even "I'm begging you San Jose: would you choke again and give the Avs a 2-0 lead in the series?" though those would be both enjoyable. No, today's request is very simple: Could the Chicago Black Hawks show to the rest of their fellow tops seeds how it's supposed to be done and take care of business against Nashville? And I don't mean with an overtime win (a la Vancouver) or a feisty but unnecessarily drawn out 2-1 win (like Buffalo). Could the Chicagos post a three, four or five goal win tonight and definitively say to the rest of the league "Were the big dogs. Come get us,"?

I'm rather petty and selfish when it comes to playoff hockey. I really don't like upsets. I cheer for the favourites. I generally want the best teams playing because I believe that it makes for the most exciting forms of hockey (except of course when my teams are involved, then upset away.) As much I as dislike the Leafs, I wanted them to win in 2002 for the sake of the game. A Toronto-Detroit series would have been much more competitive from a pure hockey standpoint the snoozer we ended up with (Detroit in five over Carolina). My all time favourite final was Colorado-New Jersey, and not just because the Avs won or Ray Bourque finally got his Cup. It was an exciting seven game series between the league's two best teams.

Which leads me back to my original point: I want to see Chicago crush Nashville tonight and in every game throughout the opening round. The Hawks are unquestionably the better team. If they can play like winners, it just might inspire the rest of the great teams to realize their potential and quit coasting


Please note: This doesn't apply to San Jose or Washington. In Washington's case, I want Montreal to win the Cup. San Jose's, if they were going to play like a winner they would have done some years ago.

Captain Blye and the Rabbi Episode 21 and 22, with a special guest!!!!!

Good morning hockey fans,
Skimming through this little bloggy thing of mine, I noticed that I didn't post last week's show. Largely through my own laziness/massive amount of time that I spent on real work. But I admit that it's no excuse. Therefore, for posterity's sake, I link to Episode 21. In that show, we opened with the hunt for 8th in the West. Colorado had just clinched the final spot and Calgary were sent packing. In period two, we discussed the upcoming home-and-home between the Rangers and Flyers, which turned into a pair of the most exciting games of the season.  We of course closed with a preview of our trip to Montreal and discussed the Habs-Leafs rivalry in general.

Now that mistake is out of the way, on to this week's shenanigans. Episode 22 was our first attempt at a three-person show as we invited theactivestick to help us break down our trip to the Bell Centre for the Habs-Leafs game on Saturday and get her thoughts on the Les Boys' chances in the post-season. In periods two and three, Ethan and I break down the first round of Eastern and Western Conference playoff pictures. Who wins, who gets upset and who wins it all in end. You can check out Ethan's picks here and my more snarky choices here and here.

Enjoy!

Unfinished Busniess First Round Playoff Preview: Western Conference

#1 San Jose Sharks vs. #8 Colorado Avalanche
The Sharks are the league second worst choke artists of the past decade (after Ottawa, of course). They failed to make it out of the first round last season after winning the President's Trophy. They haven't made it out of the second round since the lockout in spite of earning at least 107 points in the past three tries and a respectable 99 points in 2005-06. And the only time that they made the conference finals (2003-04), they lost to far less talented Calgary Flames team. Joe Thornton has never proven himself to be a playoff performer. Egveni Nabakov has been vastly inconsistent in past playoffs and wilted for Russia during a playoff-like situation during the Olympics. Patrick Marleau has never been a world-beater in post-season. All of this is true. But what's also true is that the Colorado Avalanche are completely gassed. Peter Mueller is out with a concussion and super-rookie Matt Duchene is only tonight returning returning from injury that kept him out of the last game of the season. I know that Joe Sacco doesn't trust Peter Bujai (and with good reason) but would have killed them to sign/trade for a servicable backup? Craig Anderson looked downright tired down the stretch in goal. The Avs were expected to finish last in the West (and the NHL). That they're even in the playoffs makes this season a success. But this is it for men in Burgundy and White. The San Jose Sharks might be the West's best chokers and still might lose to a team that they should beat. But that team won't be Colorado.

Prediction: Sharks in four


#2 Chicago Black Hawks vs. #7 Nashville Predators
Top to bottom, Chicago could have the best team in the Western Conference. They're stacked on the first line, have arguably the best defense in the NHL, can send out a pair of tough, shut-down units on the 3rd/4th lines and it looks like they've finally found an NHL goaltender in Antti Niemi. The only reason that I'm not calling for a sweep is the amount of respect I have for Nashville defence/goaltending combination. I think that they can shut the Hawks down for one night in Nashville to save face. But only one night. This one's over before it even starts.

Prediction: Hawks in five


#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 Los Angeles Kings
I preface this prediction by declaring my anti-Canucks bias out in the open for all to see. I fucking hate this team, organization, its fans and pretty much everything it stands for. It was this bias that clouded my judgment at the beginning of the season so much that I called for Vancouver to miss the playoffs. However, I'm not blinded so much my rage to not give these devils their due. The Sedins have emerged as elite (and vastly underpaid) talents in the league. Heck, Henrik was instrumental in winning me my Fantasy Hockey league. These two were able to turn a mediocre whiner into 30 goal scoring whiner and slightly under paid centre into vastly overpaid centre. On defence, somehow they've put together a decent combination with former San Jose Sharks, head hunters, drunks, 9th rounders and Alex Edler. But truthfully this team comes down to their captain in goal, Roberto Luongo and which version of Bobby Lou show up. If it's the one that was steady for Vancouver prior to the Olympics and Team Canada during the Games, Vancouver should be fine. But if it's the one that allowed four goals to Colorado, Nashville and Detroit as well as EIGHT to the Los Angeles Kings, then it will be curtains for Vancouver. Especially because Los Angeles quietly has a very good goaltender in Jonathan Quick, a great defensive pairing in Doughty and Johnson (Drew Doughty himself has emerged as one of the three best d-man in the NHL) and sneaky forward unit that scores by committee (seven forwards with at least 15 goals, led Kopitar with 34). Call it wishful thinking; call it negative if you want but I see Bad Luongo making more than one appearance in this series.

Predictions: Kings in seven


#4 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
I don't have a lot to say other than the Detroit Red Wings are the hottest team in the NHL since the Olympic break. The Wings are 15-3-3 since returning, beating such playoff teams as Colorado, Chicago (twice), Vancouver, Buffalo, Nashville (twice) and Pittsburgh. Jimmy Howard has become the short and the long term replacement for Chris Osgood and is the choice of many writers for the Rookie of the Year. No one has been great but no one has needed to be. Mike Babcock's team is veteran laden and talented at every facet of the game. It would be great to talk more about Phoenix's feel good season continuing into the playoffs but they've drawn the worst possible opponents. The Red Wings know how to win. They will put on a clinic against the Coyotes.

Prediction: Red Wings in five

Unfinished Business First Round Playoff Preview: Eastern Conference

#1 Washington Capitals vs. #8 Montreal Canadiens:
I preface this with the following: I want the Canadiens to win. I hope that the Canadiens will win. But I can't see it happening. These are the Washington Freaking Capitals. They have the best player in the league, arguably the best forwards in the league and one of the smartest coaches. Defensively, the two teams are about a wash with the Habs slightly stronger. In goal, the Canadiens have the advantage. Jaroslav Halak is one of only three goaltenders who finished in the top ten in shutouts, GAA, Save Percentage and Winning Percentage (the others being Ryan Miller and Ilya Bryzgalov).  I know that Jose Theodore has been great in 2010 for Washington but call it a hunch the Bell Centre faithful will get to him at least once. In addition, the Habs have played the Caps tough this year (2-1-1 is quite reasonable) and Washington needs to get a few kinks ironed out before they steamroller the rest of the league. Montreal can surprise them on these aforementioned "kink nights" but that's about it. Ovi and co. are too strong to fall to (based on regular season points) the worst team to make the playoffs since the lockout.

Prediction: Caps in Six


#2 New Jersey Devils vs. #7 Philadelphia Flyers
I've been reading around the interwebs that the Flyers are the sexy upset pick in the East. The argument goes that Fat Brodeur has lost a step, Philly won the season series 4-1-1 and the Devils as an organization are a bit washed up. And all of this maybe true. But the Flyers are going with Bobby, er, Brian Boucher in goal. Boucher hasn't started a playoff game in eight years and hasn't won one 10. In fact, 1999-2000 was the only time he's been ever thought of a as a starting goalie. New Jersey won't be going all the way this year but Brian "The Waterboy" Boucher and the Flyers aren't going to be ones to stop them.

Prediction: Devils in Six


#3 Buffalo Sabres vs. #6 Boston Bruins
The Buffalo Sabres posses the league's best goaltender (Ryan Miller), one of the craftier coaches (Lindy Ruff), the best rookie defenceman (Tyler Myers), the league's second best penalty kill and just saw their best goalscorer (Thomas Vanek) return from injury in style with a four goal performance (Michael Cammalleri, please take note). Plus, there's a good chance that their first line centre (Tim Connolly) returns. The Bruins are still missing Marc Savard, still are playing with a hurt Zdeno Chara and without a Phil Kessel. Oh yeah, he plays for the Leafs. But the B's have the Leafs second overall pick. And next year's. Tukka Rask should be able to win one game in Boston and that's about it.

Prediction: Sabres in five


#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Ottawa Senators
If only to be a jackass, I'm calling for a sweep. Ottawa is the most famous choke artists in the NHL over the past decade. The San Jose Sharks (I'll get to them in my Western Conference preview) come close but the even the Sharks' period of sustained craptasticness is dwarfed by the Sens. Ottawa had the talent to have won at least two Cups from 1999 until 2009. Instead, they died like dogs year-after-year and usually to the Leafs. The one time that they made the Cup Final, they were outmatched by an Anaheim team that was far inferior in talent but made up for it in physicality. As for the Penguins, what do I have to say? They're the defending champs, the two-time Eastern Conference winners, have two of the three best players in the NHL and world class supporting staff. If I wasn't being a jackass, I would point out that Brian Elliott is playing well enough to likely steal a game on his own. But since I am...

Prediction: Penguins in four

Eastern Conference Champs: Washington Capitals
Since I've been riding them all season, I'm not backing down now. This is the year that Ovechkin gets the monkey off his back, beats Crosby and the Penguins and leads the Caps the Stanley Cup Final.

And the winner is...

Before I do an long and drawn out playoff prediction piece, here's my prediction for who wins the Stanley Cup. Are you ready? Sitting down? Okay, here goes. The Stanley Cup winners will be.....................One of  Washington, San Jose, Chicago, Phoenix, New Jersey, Vancouver, Detroit, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh or Buffalo.

"Wait," you say to yourself. "All you did was name the ten best teams based on regular season record. That's no prediction. Any putz could do that. Why the hell are you wasting my time?" If you'll indulge me a few more minutes, I will explain.

The ten teams that I've listed do in fact posses the ten best records from the regular season or as I like to call them "The Top Third." The teams ranked 11-20 are therefore "The Middle Third" and the bottom ten are "The Last Third." With one exception, one of these Top Third teams have won every single Stanley Cup since the league doubled in size in 1967-68. Check hockey-reference.com if you don't believe me.

Even the supposed "upset" champions were in that top 33%. We remember Ken Dryden backstopping the '71 Habs to a shocking opening round win over a Bruins team that finished 57-14-7 (121 of a possible 156 points) and led by Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito. What gets forgotten is that Montreal finished with 94 points themselves, good for 4th in the 14 teams league. That they won the Stanley Cup shouldn't have surprised anyone.

Similarly the 1979-80 New York Islanders went into their final with the Philadelphia Flyers as the clear underdogs. The Flyers were the President's Trophy winners, finishing 25 points ahead of the Isles (116 to 91). But of course, those 91 points were good enough for 5th overall in the NHL. Yes, it was an upset in terms of the head-to-head battle but it wasn't as if the Long Island boys were crap; they were still a half-decent team.

The only time that a middle third team became King of the Mountain was in 1994-95 when New Jersey Devils swept of the Detroit Red Wings. But even if we grant that this was an upset, we must also take into account the elephant in the room: the 1994-95 season was sham of a year. The season was only 48 games, most of the players played themselves into shape and many teams month-to-month records are completely without reason. That the Devils were able to accomplish this feat in this screwy, shortened season I feel only continues to prove the point of how damn near impossible Stanley Cup upsets are.

One of the great myths that the NHL has managed to cultivate over the years is that once the playoffs start, anything can happen. It's a second season. That you can throw regular season records out and only focus on the games at hand. You've all heard the cliches. What the league has done is created a giant half-truth. It conjures up images of the great upstarts: '82 Canucks, '91 North Stars, the '96 Panthers, '03 Mighty Ducks, '04 Flames and '06 Oilers. Teams that scraped by in the regular season, barely making the playoffs. But when it mattered, these 6th, 7th and 8th placed teams went above and beyond the call of duty making all the way to the Stanley Cup Final...and then lost.

While we pat these dark horse teams on the back and admire their tenacity, we must remember that they were (at the end of the day) failures. We must not forget that in 1982, the Islanders swept the Canucks. That in '91, Pittsburgh massacred the North Stars 8-0 in game six. And that even though the Ducks, Flames and Oilers went seven games, the favourites dominated game seven every time. Honestly, I don't care that the Ducks, Flames and Oilers took the eventual champs to seven games. They all lost that critical battle. In these playoffs, there is only true victor: The Cup Winners.

The Stanley Cup playoffs is one of the most grueling events in all of sports. Four best-of-seven series played over a two month span. To win, teams need to stay completely focused for a extended period of time. With as many of as seven games against the same opponent, scouting and coaching staffs come to posses literally boxes of notes and tape by the end of a given series. They can know their opponents better than they know their own team. And of course, everything has to be clicking. Forwards, defencemen, goaltenders, special teams, coaching, scouting. All of it needs to be in place for glory at the end. I therefore submit that based on past evidence, teams that have not exhibited these features enough during the first 82 games will eventually be stopped at some point in the post-season. It doesn't matter if it's in game four of the first round or game seven of the Stanley Cup final. The end is result is still the same. There is still only one big winner at the end and won't be an underdog; if a team that I didn't mention at the top is able to make the Stanley Cup final, they will be dead on arrival.

Captain Blye and the Rabbi: Episode 19

Welcome back hockey fans. It's absolutely amazing outside, with yesterday being one of the nicest St. Patrick's Day in recent memory (take this comment however you'd like). It almost seemed a waste to stay indoors and cooped up but that's where the Rabbi and I were last night to give you, our listeners, your weekly dose of awesome. In this week's show, Ethan and I lead with the seemingly unending topic of headshots (and reckless play in general). Last week, we were disappointed with the hit that Matt Cooke put on Marc Savard. Well guess who is is? Donald S. Cherry himself. Maybe there's hope for the old guard yet. We wax on Cherry's reaction to the Cooke hit as well as some discussion on dangerous plays in the league these days. In period two, we discuss the playoff situation in the East. While the individual teams are closed to settled, there still are some pressing questions: "Can the Rangers make the big dance?" "How far will Ottawa fall in the standings?" And "Who are you, and what have you done with Montreal Canadiens?" Finally period three takes a similar look at the Western Conference. Spots one through seven seem locked in. The question is who will get the final post-season birth: Calgary or Detroit?

As always, enjoy the show!